PRICE PRESSUREElevated
28.7%
Annual inflation in 2022
The initial price shock cut purchasing power.
World Bank via FRED ↗UKRAINE WAR / REGIONAL SPILLOVERSRESEARCH SNAPSHOT · 02 NOV 2026
Moldova, under pressure.
How the war next door is reshaping prices, public services
and security in one of Europe’s smallest economies.
COVERAGE2022—2026Dated observations. Not a live feed.
Adverse impact Resilience / support Context / reference
DISPLACEMENTService pressure
~140k
Ukrainian refugees hosted
People remaining in Moldova · March 2026.
UNHCR ↗ENERGY RESILIENCESupport agreed
€250m
Energy support package
EU and partner support announced for 2025.
European Commission ↗01 / HOUSEHOLD ECONOMYThe price shock eased.
The price shock eased.
The pressure remained.
Consumer price inflation · annual average (%)
↳
Inflation fell sharply after 2022. Slower inflation means prices rise more slowly; it does not mean prices have returned to pre-war levels.
Source: World Bank / FRED · annual observations
| Year | Inflation |
|---|
02 / TURNING POINTS
22—26A changing exposure
War crosses into daily life
The invasion triggers refugee arrivals and economic disruption.
A European path opens
EU accession negotiations formally begin.
Gas supplies stop
Gazprom’s cutoff deepens the energy crisis in Transnistria.
Another energy emergency
Strikes in Ukraine disconnect a key power link to Romania.
03 / THE CUMULATIVE COST
2021 = 100 · ANNUAL AVERAGESLower inflation. A higher price level.
Each year’s increase builds on the last. By 2025, average consumer prices were approximately 64.7% above their 2021 level.
This compounds the annual inflation rates shown above. It describes the overall price level, rather than the price of a particular product or the effect of the war alone.
Calculated from World Bank / FRED data ↗2021 BASELINE100.0
2025 PRICE INDEX164.7
Baseline price level+64.7% since 2021
Index points, not currency. Calculated using unrounded annual rates.
04 / ENERGY EXPOSURE
Cross-border riskDisruption travels through the grid.
Moldova’s electricity security depends on infrastructure beyond its borders. Diversifying suppliers helps, but the physical connections still matter.
Attacks in Ukraine
Damage to generation and transmission can disturb an interconnected electricity system.
Shared infrastructure
Power lines and cross-border connections carry the effects into Moldova.
Homes and businesses
Disruption creates supply risks and increases the need for replacement electricity.
The inherited dependency
In its 2024 assessment, the IEA described Moldova’s reliance on electricity from the gas-fired MGRES plant in Transnistria. That arrangement depended on Russian gas.
The route to resilience
Stronger connections with Romania and European markets, domestic generation and energy efficiency can reduce exposure to a single supply route.
05 / DISPLACEMENT & DAILY LIFE
UNHCR · JANUARY 2026 SUMMARYFinding safety is only the first step.
SCALE OF THE RESPONSE
~6%
of Moldova’s population
Around 148,000 Ukrainian refugees were living in Moldova in December 2025, according to UNHCR.
Six highlighted dots per hundred illustrate the reported proportion.44%
Living in poverty
Share of refugees reported by UNHCR, drawing on its Socio-Economic Insights Survey.
1 / 3
Struggling to meet basic needs
Language barriers, caregiving responsibilities and limited job opportunities can make it difficult to earn a stable income.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR SERVICES
Long-term support needs extend beyond shelter to schooling, healthcare and access to work. Assistance supports refugees and the communities hosting them.
These indicators describe different measures and are not additive. The headline count elsewhere uses March 2026.UNHCR programme summary ↗
06 / THE EUROPEAN RESPONSE
2025–2027 facilityA longer-term financial commitment.
UP TO€1.9bn
EU Reform and Growth Facility
Rounded headline envelope · adopted March 2025 GRANTS€385mUp to · non-repayable support
LOANS€1.5bnConcessional · repayable funding
Payments depend on verified reform commitments. This is the facility’s funding envelope, not a total already disbursed.
Shown separately from the €250m energy package; the figures are not combined here.Council of the EU · 18 March 2025 ↗
07 / IMPACT REGISTER
05 OBSERVATIONS